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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd