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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still